What Will Be

The championship picture in college football is shaping up to be a convoluted mess come the end of November. You may not have noticed, but this weekend was the tipping point which will irritate football fans more than a two loss team winning the BCS title last year.

The presumptive (and one of my picks ) first half of the national title contenders, Oklahoma, lost to a Texas team that many college football experts predicted would not win at least nine games for the first time in over a decade under Mack Brown. Seems like most of those critics hope the wives of guys who bought their preview mags back in June threw them in the trash.

Looking at the old adage of if you lose early enough in the season, by the time the bowl bids come out, all will be forgiven. This will be the case for one USC. Yes, the same Trojans that laid an egg up in Corvallis, Oregon. Ohio State who lost to SC by more than 30? It’s a possibility if not a long shot, but the fact that it’s still on the table shows there is something wrong with the BCS. I know, I know “hey, I already knew that.” And you’re right, you did already know that.

A year ago from last weekend, LSU lost to Kentucky. No biggie, they'll recover. Well, in their last regular season game they lost to Arkansas and looked to be on the outside looking in. West Virginia went on to lose to Pitt and Missouri lost to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship and opened the door for LSU and Ohio State.

Look folks, these two teams were not the best two teams by the end of the year, but USC had to go and lose to Stanford earlier in the year and Orgeon as well. So they were relegated to playing Illionis who had three losses in the Rose Bowl. If we had a playoff, my guess is USC and Georgia would have settled it for the title, and would have been one heck of a game.

But no, the teams with the best shot at BCS glory are the teams with the path of least resistance. That's why my pick for the big game will be USC and OU, yes, two one loss teams. But if all goes according to plan, that should be their only marks in the loss column by the end of the year.

Two teams that can mess it all up, (well three) are Alabama and Penn State (and Texas) provided they win out. A one loss Bama team would make it in, so would an undefeated Penn State team (so long as Texas and Oklahoma have more than one loss). Got all that? Playoff people, playoff!!

Now, regarding this weeks poll First things first, Texas should not be number one. I know most are impressed by their win on a neutral site over then top ranked Oklahoma, but I still think Alabama’s win in Athens is still more impressive. The Crimson Tide should be number one. In fact, this is how I see the top 10.

1. Alabama - not playing shouldn't help or hurt you.
2. Texas - jumping from #5 to #1? They're a good team, but come on people. Calm down.
3. Penn State - quietly one of the most impressive teams this season.
4. Florida - Tim Tebow back with a vengence.
5. Oklahoma - down but not out, best shot at Big XII South title.
6. Texas Tech - sneaking in, will be exposed.
7. Oklahoma State - still undecided if this team is legit, but thinking they are.
8. USC - shouldn't be ranked above undefeated teams in the Big XII, sorry Petey.
9. Georgia - waiting for the showdown with Florida, shouldn't look beyond Vandy this weekend.
10.Missouri - off weeks suck, Daniel proving me right that he's not even the best QB in the Big XII.

At the moment both polls have BYU in the top 10. I’m calling BS on that one. Had it not been for a horrible penalty on Washington’s Jake Locker the Huskies would have probably won that game against the Mormons. Then Washington lost by 50+ points to Oklahoma. Washington is a horrible team and almost beat the Cougars. BYU should not be within 10 spots of Oklahoma in the rankings.

Speaking of non-BCS schools being in the top 25, along with BYU, Utah and Boise State are all undefeated. There is a very real possibility that two of these three teams could make an argument to be in a BCS Bowl game. If BYU wins out, they could make an arguement for the BCS Title game. In my opinion, Boise State was the worst thing that could happen to the BCS system when it defeated Oklahoma two years ago.

Why? Because it’s going to legitimize the case for teams like Hawaii to go to the Sugar Bowl and get shattered by team that didn’t even play in it’s conference championship game. My guess is more of these games are going to turn out like last years Sugar Bowl and less like the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

So I’m still holding on to my prediction that Oklahoma will face USC for the national title. Oklahoma has a much easier road to the end of the year despite the loss to Texas. Their only major hurdles come at the end of the year when they face Texas Tech in Norman, Oklahoma and when they travel to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State. I wouldn't be worried about the Jayhawks in Norman this Saturday.

Texas on the other hand has to play #11 Missouri (who was #3 before last weekend), #8 Oklahoma State, at #7 Texas Tech, Baylor, at #16 Kansas and then at home to Texas A&M who they haven’t beat since Vince Young was around. If Texas makes it to and wins that Big XII championship they shouldn’t have to play in the national title game. But that won’t happen, Texas will lose one or probably two of those games, and if they don’t, they would be one hell of a team for it.